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home contract options charts compare exchange rates the process testimonials about us pound sterling forecast pound sterling forecast - expert opinions on foreign exchange economic data predictions sterling strength sterling weakness euro usd aud nzd cad chf sterling rates ahead of the key brexit vote next week! (james lovick) june 8, 2018 - 3:30 pm | by james lovick filed under: economic data , euro , sterling strength the pound is seeing considerable uncertainty this week ahead of the key vote next week in the house of commons on the brexit withdrawal bill. the debate commences next tuesday and will last for two long days before the vote on wednesday evening. this has the potential to be a major market mover for sterling exchange rates and clients with pending requirements would be wise to get in touch to plan around this event. in my view this is the event of the week for anyone with a currency requirement. trading prices have been choppy after much uncertainty over the agreement reached yesterday between brexit secretary david davis and prime minster theresa may. an official brexit backstop date has now been included in the text for leaving the eu as to when the britain must leave the customs union and this is starting to shape the direction of brexit. a white paper is also expected soon and these kind of developments are likely to see a major reaction for the pound. clients looking to buy pounds or sell pounds should be aware of the implications from all of these developments which are likely to be the biggest drivers for market volatility. the bottom line is that if there is any kind of political upset then the pound is likely to come under renewed and sharp pressure. if for example uk prime minister theresa may is defeated a number of times on these 15 amendments which have been put forward by the lords then this could potentially result in a vote of no confidence in the prime minister, something the labour party are actively plotting. the risk of a general election at this crucial time in the midst of the brexit negotiation could spell trouble for sterling exchange rates. gbp eur is sitting just below 1.14 and close to the highs seen in recent months despite the slight slowdown in the economy and postponement of the next interest rate increase. clients would be wise to consider taking advantage of the better levels currently available to avoid any sudden drop in the rates. there is a flip side to all of this and that is if the prime minister can win all the votes possibly by conceding a few and come out unscathed then this could prove to be beneficial for her leadership and hence the pound. for assistance in making transfers and for guidance on the timing of an exchange then please get in touch with me at [email protected] and i will be happy to assist and give you my views on the markets. brexit related politics likely to be the biggest driver of gbp exchange rates next week june 8, 2018 - 10:01 am | by joseph wright filed under: economic data , euro , sterling weakness sterling dropped in value yesterday after the latest brexit related announcement was made. there are conflicting opinions within the conservative government as to whether or not there should be a open ended period of time that the uk remains a part of the customs union, should a deal not be in place by march of next year as planned. the topic is heated to the extent that the current brexit secretary, david davis had been rumoured to plan to step down if he didn’t get his way on this. he wanted there to be a time limit on how long the uk would remain part of the customs union if there is no plan in place, so based on yesterday’s market movement his plans aren’t favoured by the markets. next week there will be discussions amongst british lawmakers regarding the brexit bill and the amendments to it proposed by the house of lords recently. i expect this topic to have the potential to move markets depending on what’s confirmed. at the moment brexit related news appears to be the biggest mover of the pounds value, especially now that the interest rate hike from the boe is likely to be pushed back towards the end of the year. if you would like to be notified in the event of a major market movement, do feel free to register your interest with us. if you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as i will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. a small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of pounds. you can email me (joseph wright) on [email protected] and i will endeavour to get back to you as soon as i can. brexit talks put pressure on the pound june 7, 2018 - 5:50 pm | by dayle littlejohn filed under: economic data , predictions , sterling weakness today theresa may held crunch brexit talks with conservative mps as brexit secretary david davis led a revolt due to the terms of the ‘backstop’ plan. the brexit secretary yesterday evening made threats that he would resign if the pm did not add a deadline to the ‘backstop’ proposal. with the relationship between the two appearing to be deteriorating by the day, sterling exchange rates struggled throughout the mornings trading session until reports were released suggesting a final leave date has now been added to the proposal. the ‘backstop’ proposal is a fallback agreement which will state that the uk will remain part of the customs union for an extended period of time if the uk and eu cannot come to an agreement by march next year. no surprises brexiteers are not happy with the arrangement as the uk will remain closely linked to the eu and this could have an influence on future trade deals that the uk try to put in place. the eu summit at the end of the month had the potential to have a major impact on sterling exchange rates and with the recent commentary coming from the conservative party i believe this has amplified the situation. unfortunately i don’t believe its good news for clients buying a foreign currency, as its only a matter of time until the pm confirms that the uk and eu cannot come to an agreement in regards to the irish border. quite simply if i were buying a foreign currency i wouldn’t taken any risks and would look to make arrangements sooner rather than later. when buying or selling the pound its important to analyse both currencies that you will be trading (gbpusd, gbpeur, gbpaud). if you would like to save as much money as possible feel free to email me with the currency pair you are looking to trade and the time-scales you are working too and i will email you with my forecast and the process of using our company [email protected] . as a company we pride ourselves in the ability to get you a better exchange rate than your current currency provider or your bank. in addition we can outline your options and the potential future events, which will impact your exchange rate. this will help you to make informed and educated decisions. minimal data out today for the u.k – european growth and u.s employment figures the large releases of the day – political issues in the u.k also key this week june 7, 2018 - 8:47 am | by daniel wright filed under: aud , cad , chf , economic data , euro , nzd , predictions , sterling strength , sterling weakness , usd we have minimal economic data out for the u.k today, the pound has remained fairly flat in early morning trading. as the day progresses we do have other economic data releases from around the world that may impact the pound against the dollar, euro and canadian dollar along with other major currencies. at 10:00am today we have the release of european growth figures, expectations are for the quarter on quarter figures for the first quarter of 2018 to remain at 0.4% with year on year growth unchanged at 2.5% as well. any change to these expectations may lead to a volatile morning for the euro, is has been mentioned in recent times that growth around the eurozone has slowed a little so should this be shown in the figures today the euro may weaken. later in the day we have jobless claims figures out from the states which of course will be important for both the dollar and all major currencies as it will impact global attitude to risk. non-farm payroll data, which is the number of people in non-agricultural employment came out better than expected last week so we may see further positive news for the dollar should these figures follow suit which may push gbp/usd rates back down again in trading today. on top of all of this we still have a huge amount of problems hanging over the head of the government, mostly regarding brexit and their plans going forward regarding this. there are reports that david davis, secretary of state for exiting the european union is not happy with the current plans set out by prime minister theresa may and may even stand down from his position, should this happen then i would expect that uncertainty for the u.k would increase and the pound could easily lose value fairly rapidly. if you have a currency exchange to carry out involving either buying or selling the pound and you would like my assistance with it then you are more than welcome to contact me personally. i would be highly confident that not only would i get you a better rate than your current provider but also a first class level of customer service too. feel free to email me (daniel wright) directly on [email protected] with a description of your needs and i will be happy to contact you personally for a free no obligation discussion about them. pound makes gains against the euro and the us dollar but how long will this last? june 6, 2018 - 8:31 am | by tom holian filed under: economic data , euro , sterling strength the pound made some gains yesterday after much better than expected uk services sector data which showed a rise to 54 compared to the previous month which was 52.8. this has given rise to a hint that interest rate rises may be discussed again but until we have a flurry of good economic data i do not foresee a rate hike coming in the near future for the uk. the pound is now trading above 1.14 against the euro and also 1.34 against the us dollar following on from the news. meanwhile if we look at the political landscape over the next few days the eu withdrawal bill will be discussed next week on june 12th. the house of lords had made a number of amendments last month so next week’s meeting could cause a lot of movement for sterling exchange rates this time next week. over in europe things appear to have settled down slightly in italy with new italian prime minister giuseppe conte announcing new plans for moving the country forward including cutting tax and curbing immigration. one real sticking point however for italy is that they currently have a debt of 130% of gdp which is clearly a big concern and way above that expected by the european union. the italian debt problem could cause a big problem in the future but at the moment things do not appear to be reflected in the value of the euro which highlights to me the problems faced by sterling caused by the ongoing brexit uncertainty. my personal opinion is that we’ll see sterling remain in a fairly tight range as we have seen over the last few months but with a number of economic data releases over the next few days including eurozone gdp data due out tomorrow and the latest niesr uk gdp estimate for the last three months published on friday we could see a volatile end to the week for the pound. if you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directky for a free quote and i look forward to hearing from you. i work for one of the uk’s leading currency brokers and i’m confident with my 15 years experience that i can be of assistance to you. tom holian [email protected] gbp forecast – improvements for the pound but are they sustainable under current market conditions? (matthew vassallo) june 5, 2018 - 5:58 pm | by matthew vassallo filed under: aud , cad , euro , nzd , sterling strength , usd it’s been a positive day for sterling, which has made gains against a host of the major currencies. gbp/eur rates have moved back above 1.14, hitting a high of 1.1462 earlier today. gbp/usd rates have also spiked towards 1.34, although the greenback has manged to find plenty of support just under this threshold. there were also significant gains against the commodity-based currencies, with gbp/aud, gbp/nzd & gbp/cad rates all rising by more than a cent. the pound received a boost yesterday following the release of better than expected uk construction data. this led to the argument that the first questers poor growth figures may just a blip and that more positive reading can be expected moving forward. in truth, it is difficult to say one way or another at present. it seems as though brexit fears continue to handicap any major advances for the pound, which is struggling to sustain any improve it generates. i have advocated to my clients for many months that any short-term market spikes for gbp should be seen as an opportunity. investor confidence in the pound is clearly fragile at best and with the uk’s economic standing post brexit still clouded in uncertainty, we are still far more questions than answers. business confidence figures remain low and whilst a run of improved economic data could help elevate sterling’s value to a certain degree, i am not anticipating a major spike from the current levels. the current political hiatus’s in italy and to some extent spain, could certainly have a negative impact on the eur. this in tun could inadvertently boost sterling’s value but i don’t anticipate a run back towards 1.20 this year. gbp/usd seems to be marooned around the current levels, with a move back to 1.40 unlikely in the short-term, whilst the commodity-based currencies such as the aud, nzd & cad are reliant on global growth and therefore exposed to any slowdown in this sector (this is likely to occur should president trump push forward with his proposed trade tariffs), brexit fears will still handicap any rises to sterling’s value in my opinion. overall, it is market spikes like today’s which should eb considered by any clients with a short-term sterling currency requirement. holding out for longer-term sustainable gains are still are huge gamble, under the current market conditions. if you have an upcoming sterling currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. we can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market. our award-winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and i can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make. feel free to email me directly on [email protected] to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer. what can we expect next for the pound? important news for the pound this june! june 5, 2018 - 7:45 am | by jonathan watson filed under: sterling weakness the pound has been on a gentle path higher since august 2017 when we reached some of the lower points since brexit. this was most clear against the euro where gbpeur dropped to 1.075 testing 8-year lows but gbpaud retested very close to the 5-year lows of 1.60-1.61. gbpusd was fairly close to current levels but that is explained more by us dollar movements than the pound. at this time it was the prospect of a no deal on brexit which drove the rates lower with no clear sight or path ahead for things to get better. the significant change since then has been the significant progress on brexit with both the withdrawal agreement in place and terms of a transition also finalised. there are still unanswered questions over exactly what any future trade deal will look like but we are pointing in a much more favourable direction. if you are looking to make a currency transfer involving the pound the timing is crucial since 1 cent in either direction on a large amount of money can be thousands of pounds difference. with rates changing every second and sometimes many cents in the space of a week or a month getting the timing right could save you thousands. this month there is lots of key data and the important thing for me is whether or not this continued optimism is warranted or not. we will get further clues on both the uk economy and also brexit this month, principally the next bank of england decision on the 21st june and the next eu summit on the 28th. waiting for these dates might not be the best strategy as with exchange rates it usually pays to be getting everything setup in advance to minimise your risk and maximise your opportunity to take advantage of any good news. exchange rates fluctuate by the second and we aim to guide our clients through the potential opportunities with our expert knowledge. if you have a currency exchange to make in the future and wish to try and maximise it then why not speak to one of our team? there is no cost or charge for our services and any information is provided free of charge and completely no obligation. thank you for reading and i look forward to hearing from you, please contact me jonathan watson by emailing [email protected] sterling rates ahead of brexit parliamentary vote – date set – 12th june (james lovick) june 4, 2018 - 5:24 pm | by james lovick filed under: economic data , euro , sterling weakness the pound has fallen across all of the major currencies today despite better than expected construction data which saw a boost in the numbers. construction data for may as per the purchasing managers index bounced higher and clearly takes into account the warmer weather after the cold winter in the uk. tomorrow sees uk services sector data and anything positive here could help support the pound. gbp eur has slipped to 1.1385 in afternoon trade whilst gbp usd touched a low of 1.3292 earlier. 12th june – parliament to vote on brexit withdrawal bill the pound is about to see a very volatile period over the next 10 days now that the date has been fixed for the house of commons vote on the brexit withdrawal bill. the date has just been announced and is set for 12th june where prime minister theresa may will seek to overturn all of the 15 lords amendments which seek to keep britain with as close ties to the eu including remaining in the customs union and single market. there will be a marathon debate for 12 hours into the early hours and depending on how those votes turn out will help see considerable volatility for sterling exchange rates. clients looking to buy or sell pounds should plan around this event as there are a number of possible outcomes which could have a major impact on the rates. to discuss your requirement and for my views then please get in touch. if for example theresa may is defeated in the commons then there would likely be a vote of no confidence in the prime minister. this could trigger a general election which in my view would come at a bad time for the country in the midst of the brexit negotiations and could see the pound weaken sharply on the back of political uncertainty. this would also be the third general election in just four years and the pound generally weakens ahead of an election. clients looking to sell euros could be presented with some good opportunities in the coming weeks as the markets try and guess the likely outcome. whilst the volatility may not be as severe as after the referendum 23rd june 2016 the issue of the customs union could become clearer after this vote and may have a sharp bearing on sterling. for assistance in timing your exchange and how to achieve the best rates of exchange then please get in touch with me james at [email protected] will the pound continue to rise against the majors? june 1, 2018 - 5:17 pm | by jonathan watson filed under: economic data , euro , predictions , sterling strength , sterling weakness , usd there has been some solid improvements in the price of the pound which has caused the pound to rise against many currencies. this is an excellent opportunity for clients looking to purchase a foreign currency with the pound which could easily be disrupted in the future. if you are holding on waiting for the pound to rise, june could present some excellent opportunities which might not last. the most important driver on sterling will continue to be the outlook on brexit which is giving investors plenty to discuss as a final deal remains a mystery. the pound will potentially drive higher if at the eu summit on the 28th june, investors are granted some fresh new on just what the final trade arrangements between the uk and the eu will actually be. ahead of this important political development for the pound, we will also have a series of vital economic news which will include an interest rate decision for the uk, europe and also the united states. with all 3 central bank in a process of change as they determine future policies the scope for volatility across all rate is high. personally, i think the pound will gently drive higher as we learn of more reasons to be positive. the worst fears on both the political situation and the economic news is not being realised, this should gently help the pound to rise. if you are interested to find out more about where rates could go and some fresh targets, please contact myself jonathan on [email protected] sterling exchange rates come off recent highs – italian developments expected (james lovick) june 1, 2018 - 9:20 am | by james lovick filed under: euro , sterling weakness , usd the pound has fallen lower against the euro and the us dollar ahead of manufacturing data released today as per the purchasing managers index. manufacturing is expected to see a small fall in the sector down from 53.9 to 53.5 for the month of may. anything above 50 indicates expansion and should the figure arrive better than expected then the pound could see a rally to end to the week higher. gbp eur has been particularly affected this week by events in italy which initially saw the euro come under some considerable pressure at the start of the week before bouncing back. there is likely to be a lot more volatility to come considering the size of the italian economy and risks involved for the rest of the world if there is a crisis. for the time being a new prime minister giuseppe conte has been appointed who is neither from the league or five star parties. for the time being this has restored calm in the markets having seen a drop in financial markets at the start of the week. the risk is that if italy left the euro and returned to the lira then the lira would depreciate because of all the debt italy holds and this would make repaying that debt near impossible. clients looking to buy or sell euros should pay close attention to developments here as any statements or changes made by these political leaders could see considerable market reaction for euro exchange rates. it should only be a matter of weeks before political tensions rise in the uk as the vote in the house of commons on the brexit withdrawal bill draws closer. this in my view could be one of the most volatile periods for the pound since the referendum vote almost two years ago. if theresa may is defeated in parliament then there is a strong chance the opposition parties will seek a vote of no confidence in the prime minster which would likely lead to a general election. there have also been whispers of another snap general election in the autumn. politics and brexit are about to become extremely topical once again and the pound is likely to react according to how things turn out. for assistance in timing your own currency transfer to achieve the best rates of exchange then please get in touch with me at [email protected] 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